It’s only a matter of time. The Baltimore Orioles offense has too many powerful bats to stay in this miserable slump — long time fans are no stranger to this narrative.
Third baseman Manny Machado will not hit .225 all year, Adam Jones has not had a multi-hit game since May 18 and the Orioles have been shut out twice this week. It is hard to see that continuing.
The Orioles team that led the majors in home runs last season (253) retained their top five home run hitters, but now has just 65 long balls (10th in MLB) in 46 games thus far in 2017.
On the verge of a nine-game homestand, the Orioles will return home to Camden Yards, the ballpark they hit .259/.324/.455 in last year and scored a boatload of runs. Temperatures will rise in June chances are the Orioles will look like the same Saturday beer league team that hits nothing but dingers.
Last year as a team, the Orioles hit .300 with 56 home runs in the month of June, by far their best offensive month of 2016. It’s no secret that rising summer temperatures help home run hitting teams like the Orioles, but nobody should pretend like everything is okay when Baltimore has another great summer.
Hitting home runs is nice, especially during the summer months, and being able to hit well in your home park is also a solid advantage, but as we move into the final two thirds of the season, the Orioles offense must diversify. After all, the playoffs are in the fall, and more often than not, have been on the road for the Orioles.
Because the Orioles have become increasingly reliant on the home run ball, it has hurt them down the stretch in recent history. Here is how many runs the Orioles have scored off the long ball in recent playoff years.
2012: 47.3 percent of runs via home run, second in MLB.
2014: 47.8 percent of runs via home run, first in MLB.
2016: 51.9 percent of runs scored via home run, first in MLB.
A one-dimensional offense has been on display in each of the Orioles recent playoff appearances.
In a five-game ALDS against the New York Yankees, the Orioles plated just 10 runs, three of which came via the home run (all solo home runs). This series also featured two extra innings games, one the Orioles lost because outfielder Raul Ibanez launched a home run in the ninth and 12th innings, both solo home runs.
The Orioles hit just .187 in the series, while the Yankees scored 16 runs and hit four home runs.
When the Orioles lost to the Kansas City Royals in 2014’s ALCS, Baltimore scored 12 runs and hit only two home runs in four games.
And then we come to last season, where the Orioles scored just two runs in a loss to the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card game. A two-run home run from Mark Trumbo in the fourth inning was the only scoring play the Orioles had all night. Baltimore got no-hit from the seventh inning on by the Blue Jays’ bullpen, who had finished with the ninth-worst ERA (4.11) in MLB last year.
From 2012-2016, Baltimore finished in the top three in home runs hit, but finished in the top 10 in runs scored merely three times. The success in crunch time has not followed either. Even with the top tier bullpen and potential in their starting pitching, Baltimore will need to find ways to manufacture runs in tight ballgames in 2017.
Manager Buck Showalter has always played for the big inning, and with perhaps six 20-home run hitters in his lineup again this year and teams playing in shifts now more than ever, it is hard to blame him. However, when the big inning doesn’t come, the Orioles are left looking around, waiting for something to happen.
The most memorable playoff moment in recent history for Orioles fans was not even a home run. It was pinch hitter Delmon Young‘s three-run double in the bottom of the eighth inning in game two of the 2014 ALDS. That clutch hit with runners on allowed Baltimore to sweep the Detroit Tigers in the next game.
While pointing out that the Orioles are reliant on the home run ball may be nothing new, the point here is the time to fix it is now. With a number of key players in their prime playing on one or two year deals, the window for a championship seems to be closing.
Possible solutions: Waiting until September to diversify the offense will be too late.
Like anything else, baseball is a copycat league. Both the Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals (MLB leaders in runs 2016, 2017) were/are one of the top two teams in on-base percentage. The World Series Champion Chicago Cubs were second to Boston in OBP last year.
All the little things, like pitch selection, or perhaps in this case, aggression at the plate, could make a difference in OBP.
Below is the Orioles’ percent of plate appearances where first pitch was swung at in 2017. Some of the top offensive teams in the American League are thrown in per comparison.
Orioles: 487/1,782 = 27.32 percent (ninth in AL in runs scored)
New York Yankees: 545/1,789 = 30.46 percent (first in AL in runs scored)
Houston Astros: 560/1,866 = 30.01 percent (second in AL in runs scored)
Texas Rangers: 537/1,821 = 29.49 percent (third in AL in runs scored)
With all the power in the Orioles lineup, especially with Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop and Machado, sometimes all it takes is them to make contact. Taking pitches and falling behind in counts can sometimes backfire.
Additionally, the Orioles get themselves into counts that end with an 0-2 count more so than these other top offensive teams.
Orioles: 10.38 percent
Yankees: 7.94 percent
Astros: 6.32 percent
Rangers: 7.80 percent
Another threat to Baltimore’s offense they could add is speed. As mentioned before, they do play for the big inning, and stealing bases does not align with that strategy (why risk another out?), but perhaps merely the threat of it, and base stealing in certain situations could change things.
Outfielder Craig Gentry, who is currently at Triple-A Norfolk, could be that base-stealing threat that the Orioles didn’t have, but the Kansas City Royals did back in 2014. Having speed, even if no bases are being stolen, make it easier to manufacture runs off hits that stay in the ballpark. Few players on the Orioles current roster can score from first off of a double.
Could the Orioles make a trade at the deadline for a player who possesses speed and can get on base? Do they let a prospect or two go for a corner outfielder instead of pitching help?
Even in games like Friday’s, when right-hander Kevin Gausman, along with the bullpen, held the Astros to just two runs, Baltimore was without an answer. Six hits, three of them doubles for the Orioles, but no home runs meant no runs scored.
Baltimore is 13th in batting average on balls in play, which is not stellar, but is certainly a positive stat considering how many 0-2 counts they put themselves in.
Sure, there are other ways to go about it (and if you have other suggestions to diversify the Orioles offense, let us know in the comment section), but for now, aggressiveness at the plate and finding other ways to get on base could be a solid starting point.
Jacob Troxell is a staff writer for the Baltimore Orioles for Outside Pitch MLB. Follow him on twitter @trox3.
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